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When good rivers turn bad: Extreme flooding
Case study - The Johnstone River, Far North Queensland

Cost summary

Summary total cost Including 1 in 100 year floods

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Annual Exceedance Probability Existing Case ($2002)
Total Damages * Incremental Area Under
Probability-Damage Graph
100 1% $92,243,000  
50 2% $52,127,000 $721,850
20 5% $8,724,000 $912,765
10 10% $4,380,000 $327,600
5 20% $2,609,000 $349,450
2 50% $888,000 $524,550
1 99% $0 $222,000

Average Annual Damage (excl. floods > 100 year ARI)

$3M

* Excluding infrastructure and intangible damages

Summary including possible maximum flood

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Annual Exceedance Probability Existing Case ($2002)
Total Damages * Incremental Area Under
Probability-Damage Graph
PMF 0% $210,000,000  
100 1% $92,243,000 $1,511,000
50 2% $52,127,000 $721,850
20 5% $8,724,000 $912,765
10 10% $4,380,000 $327,600
5 20% $2,609,000 $349,450
2 50% $888,000 $524,550
1 99% $0 $222,000

Average Annual Damage (excl. floods > 100 year ARI)

$4.5M

* Excluding infrastructure and intangible damages
* A PMF (probable maximum flood) was not modeled. The total damages estimate for the PMF was calculated assuming a flood level 2 m higher than the 100 year ARI flood level. Neither the damages estimate now the flood level assumption should be quoted.

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1. Origins of extreme weather | 2. Finding hidden treasure | 3. Streams and mass wasting
4. The Johnstone River, FNQ


The resources contained in this unit are courtesy of Earth Science Australia http://earthsci.org/